Author : Nick Krym

Outsourcing Trends for ‘09

As I mentioned earlier in ‘08 – the Year of Predictions it’s difficult to not to yield the temptation of making predictions. First, in the uncertainty of today’s economy almost every one is looking for those; second, all of us with strong opinions on the outsourcing have some predictions at least in our minds; and third, personally I am very curious whether I can get any close to what ’09 will eventually show…

Being new to the fortune telling market I have been considering cold reading techniques, the art of creative vagueness, and audacity of stating the obvious. Those all seem like winning strategies and after some considerations I decided to use them all and present my predictions in a form of Outsourcing Trends for ’09, so here we go:

1. India will remain the leading outsourcing destination. How about that? Well, let me add at least something meaningful to this “discovery”. When it comes to India I expect:

  • a notable decrease in the rate of growth, I’d say mid teens to low twenties;
  • minor decrease in a market share;
  • consolidation with many casualties in the low end of the market;
  • improvements in quality of resources and general metrics of the services such as turnover ratio for top providers;
  • we will see a few megadeals mostly from the top tier vendors.

2. China will continue to straggle to grow its IT outsourcing offering:

  • there won’t be substantial growth in IT outsourcing, the figures at best reaching high single digits;
  • there will be some reshuffle of the top tier with some of the current leaders substantially giving up their position; my bet on the biggest loser is Freeborders;
  • the outsourcing for Japan will grow stronger, US business will grow at a lower rate.

3. Russia, Ukraine and Byelorussia will continue loosing their edge:

  • there won’t be any considerable growth in IT outsourcing, the figures will be in low single digits;
  • there will be no reshuffle of the top / second tier; a few of the current leaders will be responsible for the most of the growth figures; companies below second tier won’t show growth and many cease to exist; the big guys will get bigger and stronger, my bets are on Luxoft and ePAM.
  • the outsourcing for Europe will be responsible for majority of the growth, US business will grow at a very low rate.

4. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico will show some positive signs:

  • the growth figures in IT outsourcing will be in a mid to high teens;
  • formation of tier one will create a few prominent names with some companies really pushing for leadership position, in Argentina my bets are on Globant;
  • emerging leaders in LA market will build ODC in smaller or less developed in terms of outsourcing countries;

5. Supply of IT resources will increase across the world:

  • there won’t be any considerable growth in IT outsourcing in gross volume sense, the figures will be in low to mid single digits;
  • the new outsourcing players such as Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria won’t make any ripples or bring anything substantial to the market just a few 100K of additional resources that will play in the low end of the market;
  • while overall number of IT resources will go up, the rate of growth will go down, with less interest in the IT arena across the world;

6. IT outsourcing volume from US, UK, Germany, Japan, and other large IT consumers will grow at very low pace:

  • there won’t be any considerable growth in IT outsourcing in gross volume sense, the figures will be in low to mid single digits;
  • there will be however increase in percentage of work outsourced across the industry;
  • geographical pie chart won’t change dramatically yet it will show more aggressive outsourcing to new destinations and nearshore.

7. ’09 will be a buyer’s market:

  • Closing new deals, renewing existing and retain current customers will become increasingly more challenging; companies that do not invest in “farmers” and solid account management will pay for that dearly.
  • The price wars and cost pressure will affect everyone; boutique shops with typical sales pitch “we do not compete on price” or “we are not the most inexpensive but we have excellent people” will need to adjust their message or get ready to face dwindling revenue stream.
  • Vendors catering to small companies need to be ready for a wild ride, especially in the first couple quarters of ’09 – many contracts will broken, payments delayed, AR will grow and cash flow degenerate; even “good clients” will develop hearing problems and it will take much longer for US mail to deliver checks.

8. Rates on average will fall slightly or stay the same:

  • the disparity in rates among offshore destinations will narrow: rates from Asia will grow while Latin America and Eastern Europe rates will fall;
  • the average ratio of US “full time” rate to Offshore rate will slide notably;
  • the gap between freelance rates across the world will continue to narrow.

9. One of the most interesting trends with some tangible events will come from top tier vendors going outside of their native land:

  • The trend will be led by Indian outsourcers building ODCs in Asia (other than India) and Latin America. I would expect top destinations being China, Philippines, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico in no particular order.
  • There will be some moves in opposite direction, e.g. China companies opening centers in India. The volume of those would be rather small.
  • We’ll see some promising cross country hiring, in particular in sales and executive roles; this activities are likely for many vendors even outside of top echelon.

10. Engagement structure, contracting approaches and model usage will generally remain the same with a few emerging trends:

  • We will see more large corporations with substantial offshore engagements buying those engagements from the vendors. Some companies will execute of their BOT strategy, some will approach vendors with “offers they can’t refuse”, some, especially smaller companies won’t be too generous and would cut the relationships without giving much warning.
  • The new contracts will become more complex and will aim for accounting for currency exchange volatility, political instability, changes in standards of living, etc.
  • We will see more usage of Disposable Outsourcing Model mainly driven by readers of this blog.

Well, that is a lot of trends, and some are neither sufficiently vague nor 100% obvious. We’ll see how well the world of outsourcing performs on a challenging task of meeting my expectations. The trick is of course will be in measuring the performance versus my objectives… Some of the stats should be available in late ’09 / early ’10, some would be very difficult to find, I guess I will run some polls or try other bullet proof methods of gathering BI…

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